Strategic Affairs no. 9
Russia's War on Ukraine: The First Six Weeks
Strategic Affairs no. 9: Russia’s War in Ukraine:
The First Six Weeks
April 8, 2022
Joseph J. Collins
Six weeks into the fighting, the war in Ukraine has already produced a few surprises. Russia has suffered terrible losses. The Ukrainians defeated Putin’s plan and the surprisingly incompetent Russian forces. Despite the destruction and Russian war crimes, Kyiv will not give up. Putin can prolong the war, but he can only achieve a pyrrhic victory.
Propelled by a vision of a broader Russia, Putin’s original strategy has failed. His Army could not take Kyiv, its top operational objective. It has done better in the south and the east, but it has failed to take Kharkiv, Mykolaiev, and Odessa, important secondary objectives. Putin’s troops found no Nazis or welcoming Ukrainians. At home, Western sanctions have crippled the Russian economy and hurt powerful oligarchs and high governmental officials. Even Putin’s daughters have been sanctioned. Secretary Blinken estimated in early April that the Russian economy may shrink 10% this year.[1]
In Ukraine, the Russian Army has failed strategy, tactics, combined arms operations, battlefield logistics, military ethics, and air-ground cooperation. The Russian air and ground forces have excelled in battering cities, killing civilians, looting, and the mistreatment of civilians. In its retreat from Kyiv, the Russian Army left behind hundreds of dead civilians in Bucha and the other northern suburbs of Kyiv. Nationwide, there were nearly 85 attacks on hospitals and medical facilities in the first six weeks of the war. Kyiv estimates that a total of 15,000 civilians may have already died in the conflict.
The Russian Army’s verified equipment losses (to April 7th), according to Oryx, a private intelligence firm, total nearly 2700 vehicles, 1200 of which were categorized as “abandoned” or “captured.” Total losses include: 450 Tanks, 284 miscellaneous armored fighting vehicles, and 551 Infantry Fighting Vehicles and Armored Personnel Carrier.[2]
The Russian Air Force has lost 74 aircraft, including 20 fighters, 32 helicopters, and 22 Unmanned Aerial Vehicles. Ukrainian forces lost 31 aircraft. The Russians have failed to achieve air superiority, but wreak havoc on Ukrainian cities, often with missiles launched from inside Russia or Belarus. Russia has launched over 1,400 missiles towards Ukraine in this war.[3]
From a total invasion force of 140,000, Mark Cancian of CSIS estimates that as many as 15,000 have been killed, with 30,000 or more wounded or otherwise not able to return to combat.[4] A quarter of Russian forces may have become casualties. In another measure of damage, the Pentagon estimates that, of the 130 battalion tactical groups in the attack, more than 80 remain in Ukraine, while others have retreated to Russia or Belarus for repair or reconstitution.
Cancian notes that the Cold War Soviet armed forces had as many as 3.5 million personnel. In 2021, however, the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies estimates that Moscow had only 900,000 service members, with an Army of 280,000 soldiers. [5](The United States has 485,000 soldiers in its Army.) Putin does not have the trained manpower and organized formations to broaden the war or attack NATO on the ground.
Led by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, a modern-day Churchill, the government of Ukraine has been exemplary. NATO has performed well. The United States alone has provided nearly 2.5 billion dollars of security assistance to Ukraine since the start of the Biden administration. Germany has agreed to double its defense spending. NATO’s eastern-most members have done their best to help Ukraine and its 4 million refugees. It should be added that we have far more open source of information on Russian forces and dispositions than we have on the security-conscious Ukrainian forces.
At this point in the war, Moscow was forced by stiff resistance to abandon its original objectives of capturing Kyiv, occupying a wide swath of the country, and changing the entire government. Putin has shifted to consolidating Russian gains in the east and south of the country. It is not clear whether they will continue to try to take Odesa on the ground, cutting Ukraine off from the sea. Russia still has a strong naval and amphibious card to play in that area. Consolidating in the Donbas, where Russia has recognized two break-away republics, and in the Crimea, which Moscow has annexed, is apparently Russia’s principal focus.
A new phase of the war is beginning. Neither the Russians nor the Ukrainians are ready to throw in the towel, or to make significant concessions in negotiations. War will continue in the east and the south. Barring major gains by either side, the resumption of irregular warfare by Russian-backed separatists --- the norm from 2014 to 2021 --- is a distinct possibility.
The effects of a leadership change in Moscow or Kyiv could be a black swan development. If Putin stepped down or was assassinated, the war might end quickly, much the same as the death of Stalin in 1953 hastened the end of fighting in the Korean War. Zelenskyy’s death would be a tragedy, but the Ukrainian fighting spirit would not falter.
It is in U.S. and NATO’s interest for this war to end badly for the Russians. President Biden should work hard to bring India and China into play by flooding their Russia-friendly markets with accurate information on Russia’s inhumane actions. The West should increase its security assistance. The most essential items are MiG fighters, air defense missiles, anti-ship cruise missiles, unmanned aerial vehicles, and ammunition.
NATO must move more aggressively to safeguard humanitarian efforts in Ukraine. Open resupply flights into Kyiv should begin as soon as possible. The cities in the west, as well as Odesa, should be declared protected humanitarian safe havens. The EU and ICC must flood Ukraine with war crimes investigators.
For the longer term, the reconstruction of the Ukraine should be subject of serious planning in the European Union. The extent of the physical damage to Ukraine cannot be overestimated. It is unlikely that Russia would pay reparations. The West needs to begin to organize and plan for a great reconstruction effort.
In the end, even if Putin manages to improve military performance, he will be left with a pyrrhic victory. Russia’s reputation for military power and legitimacy has been trashed. The hatred that murderous Russian forces have engendered in the Ukraine will last for generations. Sanctions will linger for years and degrade an already mediocre economy. The sanctions will also turn the Russian economic elite --- Putin’s pals --- into international pariahs. War crimes tribunals will try to breach the walls of the Kremlin and its Ministry of Defense.
NATO has enhanced its strength. More American troops will move farther into Eastern Europe, and Germany will increase its military strength. One may see the unified alliance taking in powerful new members, like Sweden and Finland.
Years from now, historians will wonder why anyone thought the goals of this war were worth such a huge expenditure of blood and treasure. By all logic, this war should end soon, but passions don’t follow logic. They won’t demand peace, only more death.
[1] NBC, Meet the Press, at https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/video/blinken-russian-economy-faces-long-term-impact-from-sanctions-company-withdrawals-136883781544
[2] At https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html
[3] At https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html
[4] At https://www.csis.org/analysis/russian-casualties-ukraine-reaching-tipping-point
[5] IISS, The Military Balance 2021, 179.